Nat-Gas Prices Plunge on Cooler US Forecasts and EIA Production Forecast Increase
September Nymex natural gas (NGU25) on Tuesday fell sharply by -0.146 (-4.94%).
Sep nat-gas prices on Tuesday plunged to a 9-month low on the nearest-futures chart. Nat-gas prices fell on forecasts for cooler US temps. Atmospheric G2 said forecasts shifted cooler in the Northeast and Southeast for Aug 17-21, although forecasts trended warmer across the Midwest and Northeast for Aug 22-26.
Another bearish factor for nat-gas prices Tuesday was the EIA's hike in its forecast for 2025 US nat-gas production by +0.5% to 106.44 bcf/day from July's estimate of 105.9 bcf/day. The EIA raised its forecast for 2026 US nat-gas production by +0.7% to 106.09 from July's 105.4 bcf/day forecast. US nat-gas production is currently near a record high, with active US nat-gas rigs recently posting a 2-year high.
Lower-48 state dry gas production on Tuesday was 108.6 bcf/day (+5.6% y/y), according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand on Tuesday was 78.2 bcf/day (+1.9% y/y), according to BNEF. Estimated LNG net flows to US LNG export terminals on Monday were 15.4 bcf/day (-3.7% w/w), according to BNEF.
An increase in US electricity output is positive for nat-gas demand from utility providers. The Edison Electric Institute reported last Wednesday that total US (lower-48) electricity output in the week ended August 2 rose +0.9% y/y to 99,367 GWh (gigawatt hours), and US electricity output in the 52-week period ending August 2 rose +2.7% y/y to 4,259,351 GWh.
Last Thursday's weekly EIA report was bullish for nat-gas prices since nat-gas inventories for the week ended August 1 rose +7 bcf, below the consensus of +12 bcf and the 5-year average of +29 bcf for the week. As of August 1, nat-gas inventories were down -4.3% y/y, but were +5.9% above their 5-year seasonal average, signaling adequate nat-gas supplies. As of August 9, gas storage in Europe was 72% full, compared to the 5-year seasonal average of 79% full for this time of year.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ending August 8 fell by -1 to 123 rigs, slipping from the 2-year high of 124 rigs posted on August 1. In the past ten months, the number of gas rigs has risen from the 4-year low of 94 rigs reported in September 2024.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.